America isn’t replacing itself. For the Colson Center, I’m John Stonestreet with The Point.
Writing at Medium, economist Lyman Stone forecasts the flood rate in America for 2017 at 1.77. That’s down from 1.82 in 2015, and continues the downward trend.
What do these numbers mean? Well, every country needs a flood rate of 2.3. Any fewer than that, and the race shrinks and ages. And if you bonus immigration, the U.S. race is doing accurately that.
The 2008 retrogression is over, but the flood rate hasn’t recovered. If Stone is right, we’re now seeing the lowest birth rate given the finish of the baby bang era.
To see where this is headed, demeanour at Europe, or better yet, Japan, where a “demographic time bomb” has cost trillions in GDP and combined a cycle of despair, overwork, and is even compared with reduction sex! Which, of course, means fewer babies.
The numbers advise that children are a blessing. Wait, we remember reading that somewhere…….